Watch out, John McCain.  Your divorce records may soon become a major campaign issue.  How do I know this?  Let’s look at recent history.

In 2004, State Senator Barack Obama entered the crowded Democratic primary for the open Illinois Senate seat.  Even though Obama was the only African American candidate among several white candidates, he failed to excite much attention even though Illinois Democratic primary voters are disproportionately African American.  Blair Hull had been leading in polls and was expected to handily win the primary.

Unexpectedly, Hull’s divorce records became public.  It seems Hull’s wife had accused him of hitting her leg.  Hull quickly became branded as a wife beater, and Obama finally began getting attention as Hull’s prospects faded.

Flash-forward a few months.  Democratic nominee Obama now faced Republican nominee Jack Ryan.  Ryan is an attractive, photogenic, self-made millionaire who left his business to work at an inner-city school.  Before Ryan’s campaign really got off the ground—surprise!—his divorce records unexpectedly became public.  Ryan’s ex-wife said he twice took her to a sex club.  This unsavory disclosure led Ryan to drop out of the race.  Obama was able to take his time consolidating support while the GOP searched for a new candidate.  After a string of unsuccessful attempts to entice a new candidate into the field, including former Gov. Jim Edgar and football legend Mike Ditka, the party eventually found out-of-state candidate Allen Keyes.  By this time Obama had become a nationally known candidate and was unbeatable.

Yes, Obama’s meteorite rise was due to both his opponents having their divorce records made public in the middle of a campaign.  Obama has never been directly linked to this tactic, although at least one of the reporters who dug up this information was linked to somebody close to Obama.  Was this a dirty trick?  Perhaps, but Obama has gotten by without of hint of dirt under his nails.  Watch out, John McCain.